India's Index of Industrial Production -- which measures industrial growth -- plunged to a dismal 1.6 per cent in December 2010 from 18 per cent in the same period a year ago due to the poor performance of the manufacturing sector.
The wholesale price-based inflation declined to 4.95 per cent in December 2022, mainly due to fall in prices of food articles and crude petroleum. The Wholesale Price Index (WPI)-based inflation was 5.85 per cent in November 2022 and 14.27 per cent in December 2021. Inflation in food articles was (-)1.25 per cent, while in fuel and power it was 18.09 per cent during December 2022.
The mutual fund (MF) industry had an action-packed 2023 as it tackled the scrapping of tax benefits for debt fund investors and surging flows into equity funds.
The output of eight core sectors grew by 16.8 per cent in May, mainly due to a low base effect and uptick in production of natural gas, refinery products, steel, cement and electricity, official data released on Wednesday showed. The eight infrastructure sectors of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity had contracted by 21.4 per cent in May 2020 due to the lockdown restrictions imposed to control the spread of the COVID-19 infections. In March this year, these key sectors had recorded a growth of 11.4 per cent, and 60.9 per cent in April.
The previous two sessions have seen benchmark indices, the BSE Sensex and Nifty presenting signs of fatigue, reaching closer to its all-time highs level. Both indices are down approximately 1 per cent from recent highs and 2 per cent away from reaching a new peak. This has led to confusion on the street about its ability to reach another milestone. The present bullish trend in the leading indices; which has displayed smart recovery since late March this year, remains intact as the market breadth continues to stay elevated.
The IIP growth has been revised downwards to 1.14 per cent for January, from the provisional estimates of 6.8 per cent, according to the official data released on Wednesday.
Mixed earnings and not so encouraging macroeconomic data dented sentiment, Ajit Mishra, VP - Research, Religare Broking Ltd said. In twin blows to Indian economic revival, higher food prices drove retail inflation to a five-month high of 7.4 per cent, while factory output fell for the first time in 18 months. The second consecutive month of rise in consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation will add to the pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to again raise interest rates to tame high prices. In the broader market, BSE Midcap declined 0.73 per cent while smallcap dropped 0.45 per cent.
The gauge for the performance of informational technology (IT) stocks soared nearly 5 per cent-most in nearly three years-as growth worries eased following a robust order book posted by bellwether Tata Consultancy Services (TCS). The Nifty IT index rose 4.5 per cent to close at 30,945. This was the biggest single-day gain since September 14, 2020. Industry titan TCS' shares rose 5 per cent to Rs 3,509.
India's industrial output contracted by 0.6 per cent in December, 2012 compared to a growth of 2.7 per cent in same month a year ago.
ICICI Bank was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, surging nearly 3 per cent, followed by HDFC, Axis Bank, Sun Pharma, NTPC and M&M. NSE Nifty surged 119.75 points to 15,812.35.
Stocks of Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL) and Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL) have more headroom left despite the sharp run in the last few weeks, suggests a recent report from Morgan Stanley. Stocks of these oil refining and marketing companies (OMCs), it believes, are seeing multiples re-rate as investors reassess long-term growth prospects. "IOCL trades at one year forward P/BV of 1.2x, 19 per cent below +1 standard deviation (SD); BPCL trades at one year forward P/BV of 1.5x, near historical averages; HPCL trades at one year forward P/BV of 1.5x, near +1SD," Morgan Stanley said.
The output of eight core sectors grew 8.9 per cent in June, mainly due to a low base effect and uptick in production of natural gas, steel, coal and electricity, official data showed on Friday. The eight infrastructure sectors of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity had contracted by 12.4 per cent in June 2020 due to the lockdown restrictions imposed to control the spread of coronavirus infections. In May this year, these key sectors had recorded a growth of 16.3 per cent, while it was 60.9 per cent in April.
The study claims that from its peak of 18 per cent of gross domestic product in 2008, the crony capitalists' wealth is now down to three per cent
These core industries comprise 40.27 per cent of the weight of items included in the Index of Industrial Production.
The industrial production index, which contracted by 0.4 per cent in October for the first time in 15 years, will continue to show a slowing trend till the end of 2009 with some chance of recovery later, feel economists.
The growth in key sectors will have implications for the Index of Industrial Production as these eight segments account for about 41 per cent of the total factory output.
With the news of recession hovering over the horizon, better IIP figures indicate increase in industrial production. It makes investors and stock markets become more optimistic.
'Given that debt AIFs, by nature, target a higher portfolio return, it is likely to attract investors like HNIs, family offices, etc, looking for a higher yield debt product.'
Benchmark indices continued their downtrend for the fifth session on the trot on Thursday, with the Sensex tumbling nearly 817 points in early trade, tracking weak global trends and selling in index majors Reliance Industries and HDFC Bank. Unabated selling by foreign institutional investors also weighed on the sentiment. The 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 816.78 points lower at 53,271.61. The NSE Nifty declined 234.05 points to 15,933.05.
Meaningful market share would go to those who have the distribution strength to push their products, such as banks.
Broader markets underperform while weakness persisted in metal and power shares.
India's manufacturing sector continued with its robust performance in November, mainly on the back of substantial easing in price pressures and strengthening demand from clients, a monthly survey said on Friday. The strong performance of the manufacturing sector is expected to continue in 2024 as well. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 56 last month from the eight-month low level of 55.5 recorded in October.
The manufacturing sector, which constitutes 77.63 per cent of the IIP, contracted by 0.4 per cent in March as compared to 5.7 per cent expansion in the year-ago month.
The domestic benchmark indices - the S&P BSE Sensex and the National Stock Exchange Nifty50 - had lost close to 1.5 per cent in three days recently before gaining slightly. Notwithstanding weakness and volatility, the Nifty50 has managed to hold on to the 18,000 mark, while the Sensex has managed to stay above the 61,000 level. The performance of the stocks that comprise these front-line indices remains polarised.
The wholesale price-based inflation declined to over two-year low of 3.85 per cent in January on easing prices of manufactured items, fuel and power, even though food articles remained expensive. This is the ninth straight month of decline in the rate of wholesale price-index (WPI) based inflation. The WPI inflation was 4.73 per cent in January and 13.43 per cent in February, last year.
In terms of industries, 22 out of 23 industry groups in the manufacturing sector showed positive growth during July 2018.
The wholesale price-based inflation eased to a 29-month low of 1.34 per cent in March on easing prices of manufactured products and fuel items, even though food articles turned expensive.
Wholesale price-based inflation rate fell to a 3-year low of (-) 3.48 per cent in May on easing prices of food, fuel and manufactured items, strengthening the case for continuing with the pause in rate hike in the coming months of the current fiscal. This is the second straight month when WPI has been in the negative zone mainly on account of a higher base and falling prices of fuel and manufactured goods. Food prices also eased during May. In May, 2022 WPI inflation was at 16.63 per cent. Last month, it was (-) 0.92 per cent.
Month-on-month stats show industrial output shrank 4 times till Oct in 2011-12.
Except for crude oil, natural gas and fertilisers, all other segments registered healthy growth.
The Ficci survey, which covered 276 units, also revealed that those expecting a fall in their production decreased to 16 per cent in the second quarter from 26 per cent in the first quarter.
"Despite subdued growth in the world economy, India has maintained a GDP growth rate of 7.2 per cent in 2014-15, 7.6 per cent in 2015-16 and 7.1 per cent during April to September of 2016-17," the commerce and industry minister said in a written reply during Question Hour in the Lok Sabha.
Though it was 2.7 per cent higher compared to the corresponding month last year, this could be just a blip if one look at the performance of individual components of the index.
In December 2014, it was (-)0.50 per cent.
The wholesale price-based inflation declined to a 21-month low of 5.85 per cent in November on easing prices of food, fuel and manufactured items. After remaining in double digits for 19 months, the wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation declined to 8.39 per cent in October. The inflation was 14.87 per cent in November 2021. "Decline in the rate of inflation in November 2022, is primarily contributed by fall in prices of food articles, basic metals, textiles, chemicals & chemical products and paper & paper products as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year," the commerce and industry ministry said on Wednesday.
While discount brokers have managed to grow at a rapid pace, they have not been successful in capturing substantial market share in the above-40 age category.
Global markets trends, inflation, release of industrial output data and quarterly earnings will dictate movement of the equity benchmarks this week, analysts said, adding that volatility might continue amid slew of announcements of macroeconomic data at the global level too. Moreover, foreign fund movement, crude oil prices and trend in rupee would also act as major drivers for the equity market, they added. "The direction of global equity markets along with movement in dollar index and crude oil prices will continue to dominate while inflation numbers of the USA on May 11 and inflation and IIP numbers of India on May 12 will also cause volatility in the market," said Santosh Meena, head of research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Crude oil, fertiliser and cement recorded negative growth
Manufacturing output, which constitutes about 76 per cent of the industrial production, fell by an annual 6 per cent, the Statistical Office said.
The wholesale price-based inflation eased for the eighth consecutive month to 4.73 per cent in January on easing prices of manufactured items, fuel and power. The wholesale price-index (WPI) based inflation rate was 4.95 per cent in December 2022 and 13.68 per cent in January 2022. Inflation in food articles, however, rose to 2.38 per cent in January, from (-) 1.25 per cent in December, 2022.
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